Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
 
Tag:Aaron Rodgers
Posted on: August 11, 2010 8:21 am
 

Fantasy QB Ratings by DC

FFB a few years ago wasn’t the same as it is now. People would never think of drafting a QB in the first round. In most 12 team drafts, 4 or 5 QBs will be off the board by the end of the 2nd round. They outscore every position player in leagues where passing TDs are worth 6 pts and you they get 1 pt for every 20 passing yards. It is very important to have a QB that you can leave in every week and know that he is going to get you about 15 to 20 pts. This is how I see the fantasy QB rankings playing out...

1. Drew Brees, NO: With all the hype surrounding Rodgers people want to bypass the man who has dominated the fantasy landscape for the last 3 years at the position. Not me, Madden curse and all... Bye Week: 10

2. Peyton Manning, Ind: This is the best QB in the league in reality and the second best for fantasy. Grab him next. Bye Week: 7

3. Aaron Rodgers, GB: Last year he scored more fantasy points than any other QB. I expect a nice season for Rodgers. Bye Week: 10

4. Matt Schaub, Hou: Really stepped up last year as he led the league in passing yards. He has the best WR, Andre Johnson, in the game so as long as he is healthy he should continue to wreck shit. Bye Week: 7

5. Tom Brady, NE: Say what you want about the man but when it comes to fantasy he produces. I don't think he will miss a beat with Welker possibly missing a portion of the season as Edelman proved to be capable in the same role. If Welker is ready by week one, Tom Brady could be a top 3 fantasy QB. Bye Week: 5

6. Tony Romo, Dal: I hope this ranking is way off but sadly the guy does perform well during the season. If you can swallow your pride he might just win you a fantasy championship. Take solace in the knowledge he won't ever win a real one. Bye Week: 4

7. Brett Favre, Min: John Madden's player of the game every game. The old man still performs like a monster and when he comes back will continue to rack up the points. The ankle is fine. Bye Week: 4

8. Philip Rivers, SD: Jackson holding out/being suspended for 3 games might hurt his value a little but I don't think enough to drop him any lower this spot. He has plenty of weapons and should continue airing it out. Bye Week: 10

9. Jay Cutler, Chi: Yes he is going to throw a lot of INTS, but he will throw a bunch of TD's too and with Mike Martz there Chicago will become a pass first offense. The report out of camp is that Hester is really starting to click with Cutler. Bye Week: 8

10. Joe Flacco, Bal: Yes I know Baltimore likes to run except if you have one of the best pass catching RB's, a new top tier WR, a WR 2 that has surpassed 1000 yards in 4 out of the last 5 years, invested heavily in a couple of young pass catching TE's, and have an aging defense that is solid but no longer shut down, you might pass a bit more. Flacco is a great value pick that you can snatch up in the 5th or 6th round! Bye Week: 8

11. Eli Manning, NYG: Their run game is not the same and the penchant to throw more will probably remain since they have a young but dynamic receiving corp.You could do a lot worse than having Manning as your #1 QB...and you can get him in the middle rounds. Bye Week: 8

12. Kevin Kolb, Phi: They love to throw in the great city of Philly and with a receiving corp that is one of the best 1,2,3 combos in the entire league plus a top tier TE, Kolb's transition to greatness should go smoothly with his first full year starting. There will probably be a few bumps in the road, but I expect big things out of Kolb...not just because I’m an eagles fan. Bye Week: 8

13. Matt Ryan, Atl: A weak and injured running game and a few injuries to himself left Ryan as somewhat of a disappointment last year. Everybody is back and healthy for 2010 so here's to a bounce back. Bye Week: 8

14. Donovan McNabb, Was: The man can still make some plays and even though his receiving options leave a foul taste in the mouth, he will have enough to earn this spot. Bye Week: 9

15. Chad Henne, Mia: Somebody's got a target to throw too. I am high on this guy and think with the addition of Brandon Marshall he's got a shot to be very good over the next few seasons. Marshall made Orton look decent last year... Bye Week: 5

16. Ben Rothliesberger, Pit: The only reason he is this low is because of the fact he will be missing 4 games. His absence will also hurt Ward's, Wallace's, and Miller's overall worth but when he comes back, expect fire like he  showed last season. (His projected points per game,15.54 points, is what ranks him this high) Bye Week: 1,2,3,4,5

17. Matt Stafford, Det: This kid is throwing to a damn Decepticon how can you not like that? They added talent for him to throw to (see Burleson and Best) and he should take a nice step forward this year. Bye Week: 7

18. Carson Palmer, Cin: He has TO and Ochocinco. And he has a legitimate TE for the first time in his tenor as Benglas QB, but these guys have transitioned to a run first team so his bottom line will be limited. (potential sleeper now with the probable suspension of Cederic Benson. They will perhaps air it out a tad more.) Bye Week: 6

19. David Garrard, Jac: This is MJD's team so he is more of a manager then anything. Servicable QB 2. Bye Week: 9

20. Jason Campbell, Oak: Normally going to the blackhole will suck all your fantasy value down but he has worked decently enough with very little before so he will probably remain about the same. The only guy who might get a bump is Zach Miller. Bye Week: 10

21. Matt Cassel, KC: I personally consider this guy a sleeper. He has some receiving talent over in KC and I think with Weis taking over offensive duties we will see him perform a lot better. That being said I will temper my expectations. Bye Week: 4

22. Alex Smith, SF: I don't know what Singletary see's in this guy but he is the starter over in San Fran. I am thinking Gore will be used a ton and break down at some point so Smith might have some late season value. Bye Week: 9

23. Matt Leinart, Ari: I understand that he has the 2nd best WR in the league at his disposal, but he couldn't do anything with him before and I don't think he will be able to do anything with him this time. I expect Derek Anderson to take over at some point but if he doesn't I can't see Leinart finishing better then here. He can’t throw a deep ball...period. Bye Week: 6

24. Vince Young, Ten: Every year the fantasy magazines overrate him and every year he ends up messing up some poor fools entire draft. I won't do that. Tennessee is the Chris Johnson show. Young's just along for the ride. Bye Week: 9

25. Matt Hasslebeck, Sea: We don't even know if he is going to start. He has some slight talent around him but even so he just isn't very good. Expect injuries as well. Bye Week: 5

26.Mark Sanchez, NYJ: I'm not buying him being any more of an impact even with the addtion of Santonio Holmes. if there was a stat for handing off he would be the first guy on this list. Bye Week: 7

27. Kyle Orton, Den:How to install confidence in your QB. Trade up into the first round to grab the most hyped QB in the 2010 draft, trade away your best WR, and draft a WR that wasn't even the best one on the board. Sorry Kyle. He wasn't very good anyway. He would make a great backup QB though! Bye Week: 9

28. Josh Freeman, TB: This kid has some talent. Too bad his team doesn't. Another year to struggle. Bye Week: 4

29. Matt Moore, Car: How to install confidence in your QB, part 2: Tell him and the media for months that he is the man for the job and then draft what many "experts" had as the 2nd best QB in the draft followed by picking another pretty good prospect at QB. Bye Week: 6

30. Jake Delhomme, Cle: I am thinking he will be benched by week 4 in favor of Seneca Wallace but if not here is his bottom line. Bye Week: 8

31. Sam Bradford, STL: Rookie QB with nothing but a dump off back. Steven Jackson could have 300 catches this year. Bye Week: 9

32. Trent Edwards, Buf: He sucks. If you're drafting him you are either in the deepest league ever or you are purposefully trying to tank your team. Bye Week: 6

Posted on: December 28, 2009 10:12 am
 

Who can we trust?

The holidays are great, because you get to exchange gifts and get some time off from work. With that being said, the best part about this holiday was that I won the championship in both of my fantasy (money) leagues. Nothing is more satisfying that taking money from your friends.

After watching a few of the worst games over one weekend that I can remember in some time, and how it affected the fantasy football world, one thing kept coming to mind: who can we trust in fantasy? I pulled out a win in both of my championship games, but some of my money players weren’t so “money.” Seriously, no one should expect a professional in any vocation to work at peak efficiency 100% of the time, but for a league in which so many "pros" are making more money in one season than many of us will make over the 25-30 years, it would seem that consistency would not be so hard to find. Granted, most of us do not have to: worry about RBBC at our jobs (imagine for a second if lawyers or doctors "shared the load" at their jobs, for example, one lawyer was the opening argument and cross-examination specialist while another one strictly handled closing arguments), face the prospect of the media trying to pull apart your co-workers at every turn or concern ourselves with people at work whose sole purpose is to stop us from doing what we want to do, even if sometimes seems that way.

But getting back to the issue of trust, who makes your list of "trustworthy" players? I decided to investigate this a bit further. Just as in school where 70% is a passing score, winning about 70% of your games during a 13-week fantasy regular season will leave you with a 9-4 record (.692 winning %), which will almost always get you a playoff berth, if not a division title and first-round bye. Using that same rationale, I'm setting the bar at 70% consistency for all fantasy players (or players who are subpar less than 30% of the time) across the board.

This analysis is only for the last two seasons and is simply looking for fantasy players who were subpar less than 30% of the time they took the field. Since the measuring sticks change each year, I cannot give a firm fantasy point average for each position, but rather the "subpar level" that each position recorded that season. I think you'll be surprised by the results.

1.      Aaron Rodgers

2.      Larry Fitzgerald

3.      Wes Welker

4.      Andre Johnson

5.      Dwayne Bowe

6.      Antonio Gates

7.      Tony Gonzalez

Meet your fantasy best friends, the players who over the last two seasons were there for you more often than anyone else. Consider the magnitude of this list for a minute if you would. At QB, you need your fantasy signal-caller to average 200 yards passing and two scores in seven of every 10 games. At RB, the averages are 60 yards and a score. At WR, five catches for 70 yards will do the trick and, at TE, five catches for 50 yards is just about enough. Further consider this list could have been reduced to five if you want to get technical and hold injuries or suspensions against a player. For example, Welker missed a few early games due to injury and Bowe just got done serving a four-game suspension. What's most surprising to me is the fact that not a single RB made the list. Believe it or not, last year's qualifiers were Matt Forte, LaDainian Tomlinson, Steve Slaton, Thomas Jones and Peyton Hillis. (Peyton Hillis, really?!?!?)

Perhaps I'm being a bit unfair at setting the cutoff at 30%. For those of you wanting to know, here is the list of additional players that would make the cut if I raised the bar to 35%:

1.      Drew Brees

2.      Peyton Manning

3.      LaDainian Tomlinson

4.      Adrian Peterson

5.      Chris Johnson

6.      Frank Gore

7.      Steve Smith (CAR)

8.      Vincent Jackson

9.      Brandon Marshall

10.  Dallas Clark

However, if we were to make the cutoff at 40%, we'd also be assuming that 8-5 (.615 winning %) always gets fantasy owners into the playoffs, which it does not. And we all know that somewhere along the way, at least of our opponents will make you their Super Bowl, which shrinks the margin of error even further. Granted, not all of your consistent players are going to hit rock bottom in the same week, so I understand this analysis is a bit lacking in some areas. With that said, it's becoming easier to see why the gap between the #1 team and #10 team is about three games in competitive leagues. We are dealing with a lot of mediocre fantasy players, some much more so than others.

How is this possible? After all, I'm certainly not calling Manning or Chris Johnson mediocre, am I? The answer is no. In psychology, students are often taught that “people are a product of their environment". The same statement applies here as well. Manning, for instance, can blame his knee rehab in 2008 and young WR corps in 2009 for being left off the first list. Johnson was being eased in last year during his rookie season and dealt with a more pass-heavy offensive approach from his offense before the bye in 2009. Steven Jackson's lack of a credible supporting cast recently has made him less consistent than he is capable of while players like Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice are off both lists entirely due to their respective delays to "feature-back" status.

Looking ahead to 2010, you're going to see roughly 10-12 of the 17 aforementioned players go in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts next summer and rightfully so, barring the unforeseen. But some of these players (in particular Bowe, LT, Smith, Gates and Gonzalez) will all be seen as players coming off disappointing seasons and thus will see their stock drop. But should it?

Due to his age and shaky future with his current employer, LT will be a hard sell as anything more than a low-end RB2 next season. Outside of him, I think the other 16 names listed above are players that you definitely can "trust".  I'll project now that if you can kick off your draft with Gore (Round 1), Manning (Round 2), Welker (Round 3), Smith or Bowe (Round 4) and Gonzalez (Round 5) next summer, you will find that you have yourself an incredibly consistent and competent team. The point I want to make here is that in a game like fantasy football that has so many variables contributing to its outcome each week, the goal should be to land as many constants as possible. With 4-5 "constants" making up your nine-man starting lineup, you increase your margin for error significantly, which is a very good thing. Ultimately, the draft only puts you in position to succeed; in-season management takes your team to the playoffs and wins championships. But the path to fantasy success begins by locking up as many constants as you can early on, so you don't leave early-season points (and thus, wins) on the bench and easily identify your team's weaknesses before your competition takes advantage. When an owner can use the waiver wire as a way to supplement their bench as opposed to their starting lineup, then it is quite likely their team is in very good shape.

Let's get back to what makes even the NFL's best players "untrustworthy". Sometimes, the biggest obstacle can be the one group of people that fantasy owners SHOULD be able to count on - coaching. For as much good as the great coaches do for their teams, isn't it amazing how often even they forget their team's identity? If I can say that about the great coaches, what does it say about the average or poor ones? The answer to these types of questions usually can be answered in one of two ways: 1) the GM "hints" who should play and the head coach or coordinators don't feel they has the authority to go against him or 2) the coaching staff, as a whole, are poor talent evaluators who can easily be swayed by a box score or the public. One of my biggest never-to-be-answered questions is: what exactly goes on during an NFL practice? Of course I'm being a bit sarcastic, but I ask because I find it amazing how often players just seem to burst on the scene. Let's examine a few pertinent examples:

  • How is it possible that Miles Austin goes from a part-timer to a player who must be double-teamed in less than a month? Are we to believe that Austin merely flashed in practice, only to become option #1 the same week Roy Williams was sidelined? Of course not.

  • How does Jamaal Charles go from Larry Johnson's part-time sidekick to a poor man's version of Chris Johnson in half a season? Apparently, Johnson had built up so much good will with the new coaching staff that Todd Haley & Co. saw fit to give LJ 132 carries to Charles' 23 prior to the bye (and LJ's subsequent suspension and release). It should also be noted that in standard scoring PPR leagues, Charles somehow still managed to outscore Johnson in three of the Chiefs' first seven games.

  • How does Jerome Harrison post the third-highest rushing total in NFL history one game after getting benched after seven carries? Was Jamal Lewis capable of putting up this kind of performance this year? Not a chance. James Davis may have had a chance if he could have stayed healthy, but Cleveland wasted valuable time - in what we all knew was a rebuilding year - giving Lewis carries when it should have been using that time to figure out if Harrison or Joshua Cribbs were part of the solution in the backfield.

  • Lastly, how is it that Michael Bush has the each of the Raiders' last three 100-yard rushing performances and is often the least used of the three backs? With all three Raiders' RBs - Bush, Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden - all having recorded at least 90 carries this season, isn't it a bit odd that Bush is sporting a healthy 5.0 YPC while the other two backs are each under 4.0 YPC?

 

Some of you may have a few players YTP, before the championship is decided, but now is the time to start thinking about next FFB season. I already cashed in on both of my leagues, by winning the championships. I won, because I prepared for the draft, starting in April. This is how I won:


League 1:

QB: Matt Schaub

RB: Ray Rice

RB: Knowshon Moreno / LeSean McCoy / Donald Brown / Darren McFadden

WR: Andre Johnson

WR: Chad Ochocinco / Calvin Johnson / Pierre Garcon

TE: Vernon Davis / John Carlson

K: Lawrence Tynes

DEF: Jets / Chargers


League 2:

QB: Matt Schaub

RB: Chris Johnson

RB: Knowshon Moreno / Jamaal Charles / Jonathan Stewart / Darren McFadden

WR: Andre Johnson

WR: Vincent Jackson / Jericho Cotchery

TE: Dallas Clark

K: Nate Kaeding

DEF: Eagles / Saints


Most of the players on my roster were drafted. Some were FA pickups, but most were through the draft. The only trade that I made was in League 1: Hines Ward and Willis McGahee for Knowshon Moreno (in week 6). The main point that I’m trying to make is that you have to study the players and draft guys whom are consistent. Fantasy football doesn’t normally reward risky moves. Doing your homework should prevent you from drafting busts (like Darren McFadden). If you take a couple of busts in your draft, the other reliable players should be able to make up for the few stinkers.


Good luck in 2010, boys.  

 

 

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com